Russia’s planned expensive arms sales to Africa are set to take a hit following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, US defense and intelligence officials have said. Foreign Policedepriving the Kremlin of a major source of revenue as the five-month war continues to spiral into a bitter stalemate.
Defense Department and US intelligence officials believe that Russia’s severe losses of high-end equipment in Ukraine, including hundreds of tanks and helicopters disabled by US and European shoulder-fired rockets , will begin to significantly slow down arms deliveries from the Kremlin. in Africa, which could give a breakthrough to Russia‘s competitors, such as China and the United States. Russia accounts for nearly half of top arms exports to Africa, according to a tally by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, mainly supplying arms to Algeria, Egypt, Sudan and to Angola.
“We anticipate they are going to have a real problem delivering material at the rate they are losing material in Ukraine,” a senior US intelligence official said, speaking on condition of anonymity based on ground rules. established by the Pentagon.
Russia’s planned expensive arms sales to Africa are set to take a hit following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, US defense and intelligence officials have said. Foreign Policedepriving the Kremlin of a major source of revenue as the five-month war continues to spiral into a bitter stalemate.
Defense Department and US intelligence officials believe that Russia’s severe losses of high-end equipment in Ukraine, including hundreds of tanks and helicopters disabled by US and European shoulder-fired rockets , will begin to significantly slow down arms deliveries from the Kremlin. in Africa, which could give a breakthrough to Russia’s competitors, such as China and the United States. Russia accounts for nearly half of top arms exports to Africa, according to a tally by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, mainly supplying arms to Algeria, Egypt, Sudan and to Angola.
“We anticipate they are going to have a real problem delivering material at the rate they are losing material in Ukraine,” a senior US intelligence official said, speaking on condition of anonymity based on ground rules. established by the Pentagon.
Across Africa, Russia still has military trainers on the ground supporting sales of helicopters and other equipment, intelligence officials said. And even though the war in Ukraine has rattled the Russian defense industry and drastically reduced the footprint the Kremlin can deploy in Africa, Russia remains focused on trying to exploit the 54-nation continent for natural resources, including oil and natural gas in Libya. and gold from Sudan, which flirted with the clearance of a Russian naval base in the Red Sea.
Inside the Pentagon, senior officials also see major impacts on Russia’s defense industrial base from the continued war in Ukraine following US and Western sanctions, which have already eroded the Kremlin’s ability to resupply complex parts, such as guidance systems and microchips used in precision-guided munitions.
In total, Russia accounts for about a fifth of global arms sales. It has a long history of supplying helicopters, such as the Mi-17 and Mi-35, to African customers for counterinsurgency operations. Experts said officials in African countries are increasingly worried about getting spare parts for the Soviet-era systems that have a strong presence in Ukraine.
“What we are seeing is a significant challenge for them [Russia] on arms sales because of all the economic effects they are suffering from their decision to pursue this war in Ukraine,” said Kathleen Hicks, the Pentagon’s No. 2 official. in May. “It’s one of their main levers on the continent…they will be very constrained to use this lever in the future.”
Arms exports are not just a foreign policy tool. They also help boost the Russian arms industry. Russia depends on defense exports to keep production lines running and to support research and development costs to build new systems. In developing the Su-75 “Checkmate” fighter jet – a possible lower-cost alternative to the US-built F-35 – Russia sought a key customer, such as the United Arab Emirates or Algeria, to reduce the costs before you start. production, said John Parachini, senior international and defense researcher at the Rand Corp. And those sales have a ripple effect on Russia’s efforts to produce big-ticket items itself.
“They can’t really afford to produce a smaller number of batches at the price they have to pay for labor and materials,” Parachini said. “So they really need export sales to reduce the cost of supplying arms to their own army.”
Although officials did not provide details on specific Russian sales that may be slowed, Hicks, the Pentagon’s deputy secretary, said in May that Russia would struggle to produce advanced combat aircraft, naval platforms and space capabilities due to Western economic sanctions and export controls. Russia has also been hampered in its efforts to advance the Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jet program.
Despite these setbacks, over the past two decades Russia has become the second largest arms exporter in the world. The Kremlin has devoted significant resources to state armaments and acquisition programs, as well as the development of high-tech systems, using a military modernization campaign in the mid-2010s to deploy better aircraft and mobile artillery, as well as new nuclear weapon systems.
Russia will not easily give up this position, despite Ukraine’s setbacks. “Right now more and more resources are going to the war in Ukraine,” said Samuel Bendett, an adviser to the CNA think tank and a member of the organization’s Russian studies program.
But Russia must find a way to balance the task of rebuilding its own forces in active combat in Ukraine while remaining a viable exporter, experts said. “Obviously they won’t want to stop doing that because not only are they making money, but arms exports are a significant extension of Russian foreign policy,” Bendett said.